The laws of time estimates
I was once given a rule by folks much wiser than I: when you are estimating how long it will take you to finish a job, always take your original estimate, multiply it by two, add one, and raise to the next higher unit. What you THINK can be done in two days you tell others will be done in five weeks. This way you can at least be sure you will get the two days.
Labels: consulting, recommendations
Free plug for Strap-Mate?
This link was in my e-mail this morning. Yet another application for our Strap-Mate friends!
Labels: consulting
Why entrepreneurs can't focus...?
Michelle Faustin (left) has a
consulting agency specializing in assisting entrepreneurs -- it's a noble calling. And she writes well, too. Consider what she says in her latest newsletter:
Because an entrepreneur's mind is always going, there is often an endless supply and generation of ideas. Thinking outside the box is not a problem. However, this very stellar attribute that contributes to an entrepreneur's success is the very thing that can cause entrepreneurs to fail or postpone the level of success that they should have in their business. Why? Because a key aspect that's needed for sustainable success, but what most entrepreneurs currently lack, is FOCUS.
Michelle, in the event you see this, I can tell you why this is. A fair number of entrepreneurs have
attention deficit disorder (ADD). That's nothing to be ashamed of: every entrepreneur I've ever dealt with has it, to varying degrees, and they all display the above attribute of idea generation. I have it myself. And I'm an idea guy.
My favorite entrepreneur was the robot creator,
when I was with GreyPilgrim Inc. This was a guy who had ideas so often, and so quickly, the rest of us couldn't keep up, not even as a team. He'd scrawl these ideas down
on Post-It notes, and the notes would be left in his wake as he moved to the next task. I used to say we should hire an intern, just to collect the Post-Its and summarize the results for the team. Who knows? If we'd have done it, maybe that company would still be alive today. Though
this idea guy is still around and (I think) doing well.
To Michelle I say, familiarize yourself with more of the characteristics of adults with ADD, and you'll enhance your own already formidable effectiveness. :-)
Labels: consulting
Dangers of working as a contract consultant
I once did a 33-day gig as a contract consultant, through Superior Design, for Lockheed Martin in King of Prussia, PA. Part of that contract was to involve the development of a simulation of a falling rocket with attached spacecraft, pictured. That gig was pretty sweet at first: I was there three days a week, as they could not afford a full-time effort. But it only lasted 33 days because they were "disappointed with my progress." The following table describes the major events:
| Day | Events |
| 6 | Completed falling spacecraft simulation for 2D case. |
| 7 | [Advisor] doesn't like work on spacecraft simulation; assigns something else instead. |
| 8 | [Advisor] told by an expert that falling spacecraft simulation "isn't easy"; [advisor] doesn't change his mind. |
| 9 | Code written in C++ by [advisor] is almost unreadable; I will be told not to change it, but I must document it anyway. Complete work on spacecraft simulation for all cases, prepare a set of simulation runs; [advisor] will not look at them. Given a copy of Mathematica to use at home, so I can be faster at work. But I must pay $200 out-of-pocket to register Mathematica before I can use it, and I refuse. I lay aside the disk, thinking it's not a real copy, but instead just an advertisement and never see it again. Later I find [advisor] thinks the disk is valuable and decides for himself I have stolen it. |
| 11 | Waste a day getting a Unix system password and logging on. I never log on again. |
| 13 | Waste a day at a meeting that does nothing to help along the work I am supposed to do. |
| 16 | Source code written by [advisor] fails under C++ 6.0, after I converted to this later version of C++ under his direction. His own programming is sloppy, by his own admission, but I wasted hours of time commenting on and compiling this code, then I'm told I have to revert to older versions with no comment. The unspoken message is that if I just ran his program and did nothing else we'd be further along with the project. |
| 18 | Told for the first time to consider the office Christmas party. Told for the second time that the office uses flex-time, and if I want to work 10 AM to 6 PM I may. I am already using flex-time, coming in at 6 AM and working until 2 PM, because the traffic on the Pennsylvania Turnpike is unbelievable otherwise. I'd spend an extra hour or two on the road each day if I worked 10-6. |
| 21 | I successfully compile and run [advisor]'s code under C++ 6.0. |
| 22 | I start having "spare time," and [advisor] is not available to work with me. |
| 24 | Cut a report's length by 30%. No word on whether that work will be used. |
| 25 | Told for the second time to consider the office Christmas party. Ultimately I will go, and I will waste my time. Nobody talks to the temp. We all know this. |
| 27 | Complete simulation runs with [advisor]'s C++ code, and [advisor] does not look at them. |
| 28 | I remind [advisor] about both spacecraft simulation and C++ code, and he goes about his business. He has a guest in his office at one point. I begin to suspect she will replace me. |
| 32 | Laid off. Told I will have two weeks to finish all reports. They said "we're disappointed with your progress," but they did not say anything to Superior Design about it. They claim they did, but Superior Design has no record of it. And I never heard a word -- I just found [advisor] unavailable to work with me for several days. Would things have been different if I worked 10-6? |
| 33 | Learn the two weeks were to start two days before I was laid off, and they intend to give my office space to my replacement at the end of the week. |
| 34 | I complete reports, and there is nobody available to sign off on them. I must come back an extra day, for ONE HOUR, just to get signatures. |
There are enough irritating points in the above history to keep me busy for days. But the top ones are (a) they suggested at one point that I might have LIED during an interview to get a job, even though I proved -- if one day later than they wanted me to -- that I could perform exactly the task they set for me; (b) they made such a big deal about a Christmas party when they must have known by this point that they were going to cut me loose. I can't explain either of these at all, even years after the fact. Here's what we learn:
- Make sure your contract explains in detail how your performance is to be evaluated, and how often, and (if you are working through an agency) what the communications structure is.
- If your abilities or ethics are ever called into question while on a contract job, contact the agency immediately and get a resolution.
- Make sure all terms are defined up front, and on paper. In my case, "flex time" meant "work 10 AM until 6 PM because it's convenient for [advisor]." I am used to "flex time" meaning "come in during some two- or three-hour window in the morning and then work your eight hours."
- Make sure your duties are clearly defined and on paper. If they change the duty assignment, call the agency immediately.
I don't hold Lockheed Martin or Superior Design responsible for the carelessness shown by its representatives while I was on this job, but in my mind their carelessness was the problem here. They had expectations that went unstated, even after it was clear to them that I would not meet them. I never knew how I failed them.
And I learned two other valuable lessons from them, which I apply whenever I work as an engineer:
- You only go conservative when you don't know what to do.
- The fact that it's never happened before cannot be taken as indication that it never will happen.
Labels: consulting
Trenton Farmers Market: what next?
The
Trenton Farmers Market (these guys have an ugly Web site for such a successful business, but maybe they don't need a nice one -- they're not selling anything online) was written up in today's Times (Yeske, C. "Farmers Market Looks to Grow") of Trenton, with a plan for expansion -- if not in space, then at least in time. It just started being open on Sundays, for instance. They're also looking at
- a facelift -- the walls are currently garage doors
- year-round merchandise (they have seller space, especially during the off-season, as most of the merchants are, well, farmers)
- and changing traffic patterns around the place, which is located near the busiest intersection within five miles of my home.
The people who have businesses there are looking at the possibility of competing with a nearby Wal-Mart that's been proposed. They also are thinking about changing the name, because "Trenton" suggests "urban," and to some, "gang violence." (That's one of the principal reasons that what was once "Trenton State College" is now known as the "College of New Jersey," you know.) Plus, the place is every bit as much in Lawrence and Ewing as it is in Trenton.
For my part, getting in and out of the place is the real issue. It's really crowded on some of its open days (it hasn't been open every day) during growing season. We park in the Halo Farm dairy next door and walk over.
There are also parts on the inside that stink. Out behind the Farmers Market itself is the smelliest little fish market I have ever seen. I was inside this little old fish closet for a few minutes and it literally made me sick. It may be gone by now: I haven't the nerve to look. And I can't buy anything there. The place draws bugs and who knows what else. If they want to improve the place, tear that shack down for starters. Then we can talk.
Labels: consulting
The purpose and power of Free Comic Book Day
This Saturday is Free Comic Book Day. What I like about this isn't so much that I get free stuff (though I do like that). It's that there's a chance for that free stuff to entice new customers to the medium. I have loved comics since I was a kid, and they're so much more compelling, both in terms of art and storyline today than they were then. Free stuff is a great way for small businesses to bring in new customers, and most comic dealers are small businesses -- standalone specialty shops rather than the corner drugstore where we bought the
DC Go-Go Check comics when we were kids. Anyhow, here's what the Web site has to say about it.
Comic books are an original American art form, created in the early days of the twentieth century. They are fun to read, featuring a wide range of diverse storylines that capture the imagination of the readers, and have survived: the dominance of radio, the ubiquity of television, the spread of color and sound motion pictures, the rise of videogames, and the Internet. That's worth celebrating in our book, and as this site continues to grow and evolve, you'll see even more information about this wonderful medium. To learn more about comic books and their history, go here.
Labels: consulting
Using radio to meet a goal
The following is drastically shortened, restated and summarized from
Gordon, K. "Riding the Airwaves," Entrepreneur 02.2006.
- Set a PR goal.
- Target the right stations. (What listeners care about you and what you offer?)
- Create a "media hook." (This is often connected to some trend or event, whether it's your event or not.)
- Write a media alert, based on the hook. Explain the hook, including your connection to or interpretation of the trend or event on which the hook is based.
- Outline your credentials.
- Let 'em know you're available to talk about it.
- Pitch the stations.
- Practice your interview!
I have always told my students that if they want to become better speakers, take a shift on the campus radio station for a while. They'll never get a better opportunity!
Labels: consulting
Gable's helpful reminders
When Steve Gable of
L. G. Accessories spoke to my class this past week, he brought up some helpful stuff even HE may not have realized.
- Using his knowledge that one-third of women have sloped shoulders, he talked about how Strap-Mate was an example of the entrepreneur's requirement to "find a need and fill it." Dave Pollard takes that hoary piece of advice and expands on it particularly well.
- Lisa Gable used as her first primary money source her credit card. Now, some writers suggest that outside investors will not approach you with cash until you have shown use of the resources you already have. But I know that one of the founders of GreyPilgrim Inc. built up credit card debt of $60K on behalf of the company. So there has to be a tradeoff.
- Notice how our documents are always evolving. Sometimes we don't even create them until the need is there.
- Steve reminds us that we always need ways to know we've achieved our standards.
Labels: consulting, young entrepreneurs
Abbreviated history of L. G. Accessories
I have shamelessly
plagiarized an
abbreviated history of L. G. Accessories (LGA), the makers of the
Strap-Mate (pictured). I got the history from Steve Gable of LGA, and I think you'll see it's a useful tool for any young entrepreneur wanting to see how a company develops, step-by-step.
Labels: consulting
Lorraine Allen on avoiding the "no"
Lorraine Allen (pictured) of the
Small Business Development Center addressed my students this past week. The thrust of her message was that our best chance to keep potential investors, employers and customers from saying "no" is to consider in advance their reasons for a "no" and prepare responses for those reasons:
- List in your own mind (or on paper if you must) what you have to offer, and then ask yourself to whom you should offer it.
- Be honest.
- Answer a question with a question (and thus keep the ball in their court).
- Assume you already have what you want from them (though without arrogance).
- Ask them "what do you need me to do?"
Allen recommends a book, which I unfortunately have not yet read: Ries & Trout,
Positioning: the Battle for Your Mind.
Labels: consulting
How Entrepreneurs engage in Mushroom Management
The way the entrepreneurs used to do "mushroom management" with me, at least, was to put off my questions and concerns with sensitive but noncommittal and ultimately meaningless statements such as the following:
- That would be great! (...as in Lumbergh -- pictured -- from Office Space)
- The meeting went very well.
- We'll take care of you.
- We'll do what's appropriate.
- We'll make sure you have what you need.
- We're talking to the right people.
Mushroom management? "Keep 'em in the dark, feed 'em
shit, and watch 'em grow!"
Nowadays, I try to ask questions that are as specific as I can make them. Make the bullshit walk! :-)
Labels: consulting
Ann on Super Bowl commercials
My old friend
Ann Sowers (pictured) watched the Super Bowl, I think just to see the commercials. I want to see the commercials myself, but not the game. I have been out of watching football ever since
"the Drive" and
"the Fumble".
Browns fans know what I'm talking about.
Ann has this to say:
I commend Dove for their stance on self-esteem. It is time that someone stands up and tells young girls that it is OK to just be themselves.
...and this...
I sure could have figured a better way of spending all that money than on a commercial with women dressed like lettuce, pickles, hamburger, and that stupid looking King.
...brief, but insightful.
Labels: consulting
Toward a working definition of "value"
When student assistant Linh passed by my class last week, I asked her how she would define "value." I admit now that I asked the question in a vague way, because she asked me in turn if I was talking about
ethics. When I told her no, then she asked if I was talking about
quality. So even I was confused by this point. What the heck WAS I talking about? And I know that many people much more experienced in business than I am are hesitant to throw out a definition of the term "value" and expect others to use it.
Still, I need a working definition for my own students to use.
Entrepreneur magazine has an article by
Barry Farber with a nice simple definition:
the power of a [product] or [service] to command other goods or things in exchange [...and...] the present worth of future rights to income.
How about this?
And going a step further: I found
another article online, by Mohanbir Sawnhey of Northwestern, that gives seven characteristics of value, which I have totally
paraphrased here:
- Customers define it.
- They will not always be able to. We may have to help them to describe what it is they like, without actually telling them they like it.
- It's multidimensional. Here are just a few things my students just yesterday said might contribute to value:
- It's a trade-off. Sometimes we may have to sacrifice a little of one area -- even one of our favorites -- to give the customers more of several others.
- It's contextual. What they like may depend in part on who they are and what they're doing with our products and services.
- It's relative. What they like may depend in part on what our competitors -- known and unknown -- are doing.
- It's a mind-set. If we don't think "value" in everything we do, we are not very likely to deliver value in anything.
Labels: consulting
Commercials in commercials: two points of view
I always liked the little "
Intel Inside" commercials embedded in computer commercials. But
my wife has another perspective: she says it's like a virus embedded in a
spam. :-) :-) :-)
Labels: consulting
How you get the itch
A student of mine bought a box of donuts and brought them to an exam, selling them to his classmates at $1 each. He made a profit of a buck or two, plus a couple donuts. Then he said he wanted to expand. :-) :-) :-)
Labels: consulting
Media effectiveness rankings per Entrepreneur
This plot was shown as a table of numbers in the February issue of
Entrepreneur magazine. To me it's easier to interpret as a bar graph, despite the large number of bars. The interpretation is obvious -- and I think it's the one
Entrepreneur would like you to have -- their readers overwhelmingly prefer
word-of-mouth marketing to the much, much more expensive strategies of radio/TV and the
Yellow Pages.
I would like to believe in the effectiveness of word-of-mouth marketing myself. But I happen to know that not all entrepreneurs read
Entrepreneur, so the survey, taken by
Affinity Internet, is flawed. The survey was taken by an Internet service provider, which means
answers to the basic question are built in.
Bottom line: don't make major business decisions on the basis of the magazine's data table. (And don't make those decisions on the basis of a blog posting either. LOL)
Update:
Two-thirds of all economic activity in the US is influenced by shared opinions about a product, brand or service. But word of mouth as a marketing discipline is only just coming into its own, and the data indicate its best years are yet to come.
...per the
Word-of-Mouth Marketing Association.
Labels: consulting
On time estimates
The good people at
Reynolds Kitchens give us this tip on saving time in the kitchen:
To speed up food prep, chop, shred or grate similar ingredients for recipes at the same time. Wrap with foil and refrigerate. Foil keeps food odors from transferring to other foods.
Strictly speaking, this isn't going to save time at all. It's just going to rearrange time. You still have to chop, shred, or grate. Their argument is really that you don't want to be bothered with the duties of a sous chef when you are busy being a regular chef.
I noticed this when I was getting ready to make a batch of pancakes for the kids. The
Bisquick box says that the prep time for pancakes is three minutes, and it takes three minutes to cook up a batch. That prep time makes some pretty generous assumptions:
- that I know where the pans, measuring cups, and mixing bowls are (they get moved around sometimes)
- that the last couple eggs in the carton are still unbroken (my son broke a couple recently)
- that the milk hasn't gone off
- that the kids get their own orange juice and silverware
...and so on. If you ever do any cooking, you can see that in order for the Bisquick time estimates to be valid, either they assume everything's perfectly in place before they start their timers, or they violate
Murphy's inviolable law.
At
NASA we used to handle time estimates in this tongue-in-cheek manner: whenever someone tells you how long a job will take, you multiply by two, add one, and raise to the next higher unit. So when the Bisquick people tell you prep time is three minutes, you should allot seven hours.
There was a news Web site in Australia that published a mathematical formula for predicting the effects of Murphy's law. The page has expired, but others have salvaged the following:
...a panel of experts has provided the statistical rule for predicting the law of "anything that can go wrong, will go wrong" - or ((U C I) x (10 - S))/20 x A x 1/(1 - sin (F/10)). [...] In the calculation, five factors have to be assessed: urgency (U), complexity (C), importance (I), skill (S) and frequency (F), and each given a score between one and nine. A sixth, aggravation (A), was set at 0.7 by the experts after their poll.
There are two problems with the formula: first, it says nothing about predicting what will go wrong; second, it gives us false hope that we can avoid having anything go wrong. It's better to ignore the predicted prep time and set aside the seven hours. :-)
One more note about pancakes:
Hellboy loves them. The day
Hellboy (pictured) discovered his love for pancakes was truly Hell's darkest hour. Never mind the prep time. :-)
Update:
Guy Kawasaki writes the following about the time estimates of entrepreneurs:
Generally, an entrepreneur has no idea what sales will be, so she guesses: "Too little will make my deal uninteresting; too big, and I'll look hallucinogenic." The result is that everyone's projections are $50 million in year four. As a rule of thumb, when I see a projection, I add one year to delivery time and multiply by 0.1.
If people are going to do this to our estimates anyway, why is it necessary for us to make them? :-)
Labels: consulting
Learning Lessons Learned
I always try to get to the subject of failures in my entrepreneurship classes, because even when we start businesses outside of the manufacturing sector, we can learn vital lessons of preparation and prevention by viewing the history of our most celebrated failures. Plus, any group of students can pick up those lessons easily, just by paying attention. And how can you not pay attention to the chronicle of people being killed, or millions of dollars lost, because of something that broke when it wasn't supposed to?
Here's what they learned from a brief discussion of the
THERAC-25 incident:
- The operator should have a view of the patient.
- Error messages (e.g. "malfunction 54") should be explained in advance or self-explanatory. The operator should be trained in the error messages.
- The full duty cycle must be completed before new commands can be entered.
- The X-ray should be inoperable without the tungsten shield in place.
- The manufacturer should have had a representative on-site to diagnose the problem right away.
- There should be a "panic button" available to the patient.
...and as regards the
Mars Climate Orbiter:
- Mission Control staff should be cross-trained so no discipline is ever un-staffed.
- Either run guidance, navigation, and control with new software that the current engineers know, or bring back the old guard as consultants to train the current engineers and possibly run Mission Control.
- Have multiple sets of eyes responsible for sanity checks.
- Have management switch from a timing-based system of judgment to a performance-based system, even if launch windows are jeopardized. It's more important to fly successfully than to fly on-time.
Really, it's amazing that young people are ready after the fact to see the secrets that seem to elude us grizzled veterans at the time that history happens.
Later on, one of these same students went to New Orleans to help his sister, a student at Xavier University there, whose apartment had been damaged by Hurricane Katrina. He created a nice -- well, maybe "nice" is the wrong word when pertaining to anything that touches Katrina --
animation describing the damage to his sister's apartment. There may be better, more professional pictures out there. But I think my student saw a chance to view first-hand what happens when things go wrong and we're not prepared. (OK, he really wanted to help his sister. So sue me.)
Labels: consulting
Erin Brockovich: the entrepreneur in a larger context
One of the things
my former NASA mentor Ted Porada used to tell me was "ya gotta make yer own job." Now, this was back in the mid-80s. Then along came the 90s, and business gurus everywhere were telling us to
have the mindset of entrepreneurs, even if we worked in larger companies -- or agencies like NASA. (That line of thinking is still going on today, and it's really not surprising, as it's entrepreneurs -- not larger companies -- who are creating jobs and opportunities and new ideas.) But the business gurus were just putting pretty packaging on the Tedism above. You make your own job. Maybe you're hired to fill a position, but it's you making a niche for yourself, making yourself indispensable, creating value. In short, doing the things an entrepreneur does. The better you are at doing what entrepreneurs do, the more successful you are at your job and the more likely you will keep it.
To me, the perfect example of this kind of entrepreneur, working in a larger context, is
Erin Brockovich-Ellis (pictured), whose story is the basis of the movie
Erin Brockovich, which stars Julia Roberts. In this movie, we see Roberts' character wriggle her way into a job that didn't previously exist in Ed Masry's law firm, find an area of real estate legal paperwork that she didn't understand and nobody could -- or would -- explain to her, and turn that into her personal niche. As she gained experience, using wiles and beauty ("they're called boobs, Ed"), she found people who were severely hurt by a polluted civic ecosystem, and championed their cause, doing the "right thing" and making herself essential to the firm at the same time. She made her own job. (And made it better since
the movie.) She became an entrepreneur without having to own the company, in the context of someone else's company.
Labels: consulting
Brief review of who's got the money
Venture capitalists -- organized as firms, these guys invest in new companies. They tend to focus on certain stages of development, and on certain businesses. They define market segments in which they have expertise and knowledge, and decide who to deal with on those bases. With these guys, there's a formal pitch after due diligence, and investment isn't a done deal until after a formal vote.
Angel investors -- these are wealthy individuals who invest in start-ups. They tend to be loosely organized, if they are organized at all. They may find out about certain investment opportunities through affinity groups/clubs. With these guys, if you get to due diligence, it's likely that they at least PLAN to invest.
Stages -- Early, growth, final (within about a year of IPO) stages, each having fairly hard definitions, from the point of view of those holding the money.
- Early stage/seed capital = initial outside funding.
- Early stage = beyond seed but before full-up sales.
- Growth stage = beginning to develop markets, and you have your first sales (up to $1M or so) in hand. This stage is perhaps the most critical, timing-wise, because windows for expanding markets will only stay open for a limited time.
- Final stage = as indicated above, you're headed for an IPO.
Due diligence -- this is the process by which venture groups or investor organizations will determine for themselves whether what a start-up says about itself is true. The rigor of this process is pretty much a function of the experience of the investors. Groups will pay different levels of attention to such issues as
intellectual property, technical development, etc. Due diligence requires the start-up's participation, because so much must be provided to the investors. There'll be weekly, and almost daily, contact as the process nears completion.
What goes into a due diligence package? Critical elements include a
marketing plan (including what we perceive as marketing opportunities), financial projections, references from folks you've dealt with, the legal standing of the company, its
investment structure, the nature of the company's intellectual property, and its
management. We must confirm what we write in our
business plan. Some
investors and organizations call what they're looking for a "SWOT analysis," where SWOT == "strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats."
Here are notes on "alternative" funding sources for start-ups, as published in US #1, a regional business newspaper.
State loan pools -- organizations exist that provide portions (25% is not unusual) of loans, guaranteeing those portions, for loans ranging from $50K to $1M. The interest rate on such loans varies from 5% to (prime-1)%.
Loan guarantees tied into certain types of businesses -- for outfits that will create lots of jobs, or locate in an economically distressed area, or represent an important economic sector. We have seen in this area guarantees for up to $1M of working capital, limited to 30-50% of the loan amount.
Direct loans -- up to $500K for fixed assets, $250K for working capital, for up to ten years, at interest rates varying from 5% to (prime-1)%.
The weaknesses in these programs (as I see it) are (a) that only a relatively small portion is guaranteed, (b) that the money must be used in certain ways, and (c) that to qualify you may have to be in certain industries or locations. Some entrepreneurs like to be able to make these choices for themselves. And, well, I guess that means they have to find money themselves. :-) :-) :-)
Labels: consulting
An anecdote about testing to failure
Once upon a time, while I was working for GreyPilgrim Inc., a disgruntled employee -- one who didn't agree with certain aspects of component design -- took it upon himself to test a component to failure. He basically tore the component open.
The
EMMA robotic arm had elastic joints, made of polyurethane, connected to metal sections at either end. The polyurethane was intended to supply flexibility; the metal strength and stiffness. (Flexibility and stiffness -- mathematical inverses -- in the same mechanism. What a concept.) The joint was always problematic in design because of our lack of knowledge about
how to properly fasten the two types of component together. And what we did -- long nails and epoxy in this case, though the design evolved later -- didn't set well with the disgruntled guy. He said to me, "I'll prove this thing doesn't work," and even as I said "I don't think you oughta do this," he tore the joint apart in front of my eyes. The cross-section looked a little bit like the picture above: once the tear started, stress increased around the tear, and the whole thing accelerated. It became easier for him to complete the damage once he'd started it.
The problems were that (a) that joint was the only one we had at the time, and it was reserved for another test -- having nothing to do with failure -- that we could not perform until a new joint was built; (b) it took him so much more effort to tear the thing apart that even he was surprised. Even the fasteners seemed to hold, until he got serious in what amounted to an act of sabotage. So if something good came out of this incident, it was that we had much more confidence in the design than we'd had before. We were planning to test one to failure eventually, but not right then. Remember, if you're going to break stuff, you have to make sure "there are many copies."
What happened to the disgruntled guy? Well, he was fired. I didn't stop him doing what he did because he'd been above me on the company totem pole prior to the failure. But he'd become a kind of cancer to the company already and was on the edge of being let go. It got to the point afterwards that he'd threatened the company, wanting a cash payment for his shares, and said
If this offer is not accepted by Monday at 12:00 noon then I will make the destruction of GreyPilgrim my passion.
He did make this his passion, and although he failed in his aim of destroying GreyPilgrim, he made life a pain in the ass for the rest of us for quite a while.
Another lesson you must learn is to make sure anyone who becomes unhappy in your start-up is unable to become a cause of failure, whether of prototypes or anything else.
Labels: consulting
Prototyping: the Lesson of Bob Bastard
Bob Bastard (pictured) was a character, a quality tester, in one episode of the prematurely cancelled, but still in syndication
Dilbert TV cartoon. Dressed more-or-less like the Phantom of the Opera, Bob would play an organ while subjecting Dilbert's Gruntmaster 6000 to the vibration setting of "Armageddon." He then placed the Gruntmaster, designed to survive in temperatures up to 5000F ("enough to boil water," says the Pointy-Haired Boss), in a temperature of 5001F. "How did you become such a sadistic bastard?" Dilbert asked. But my students and I had a different view: you can learn how to do things right from observing how things are done REALLY wrong.
If you want to test a prototype, here's what you must consider:
- First, if you want to test your prototype to failure (and you might for many reasons, most notably to find out how it breaks), then you should be like the Cylon played by Grace Park (pictured) in Battlestar Galactica, and make sure "there are many copies." Not a good idea to break your only copy. I have an anecdote about that, but that's another story.
- You must run the right tests -- something the thing you are trying to build might actually experience, only worse. Not as bad as what Bob Bastard would put you through, but worse than what your users would put you through.
- You should have more than one person weighing in on what tests to prepare. You'd have a committee to develop a manufacturing plan; why not for this?
- You should run multiple trials too, at different times -- that does a lot to remove time-based biases. Good experiment design calls for you to run experiments in such a way as to minimize the effects of other biases as well, but what might cause those other biases you have to figure out for yourself. (Or with your committee. :-))
- Finally, you need to run field tests as well as test-stand tests. That's Brian Holcombe's plan, and it should be yours too.
Did our sadistic friend teach us more than he intended?
Labels: consulting
Orthodontist becomes an aggressive marketer
My kids' orthodontist is Dr. Karen DeSimone, whose office is a few miles away from here. While I was in her waiting room yesterday, I noticed a sign posted that said the office had a new commercial airing on
TNT,
Lifetime, and the
Food Network. (I actually
watch one of those channels from time to time. But I haven't seen the commercial yet.) Many cable channels carry commercials from enterprises local to the viewing region, and I'd always thought those commercials were passed on to the channel by the local cable provider. But that's a digression. The point is that this is an aggressive move for DeSimone and her two partners, and I'm anxious to see what kind of bang-for-the-buck they get out of what'll be four months of commercials.
The argument may be that many people in DeSimone's potential target audience will be watching winning personalities like Rachael Ray (pictured) -- assuming that the price DeSimone paid is getting a commercial on what must be one of Food Network's most popular shows -- but to me, DeSimone has roughly the same target audience as
Club Z Tutoring, and
I just wrote that Club Z eschews commercials, at least in this market, in favor of less expensive marketing. I'm not saying either approach is wrong. I don't know yet. And DeSimone has what I think is a more mature business, and may be able to take a chance on new markets.
That's not all DeSimone is doing, either: you see the bumper sticker (pictured above) that she is giving out. She is also giving out T-shirts -- and if Mom wears the T-shirt to her kid's next appointment, she will get a certificate for having her nails done; if it's Dad with the shirt, he (read: I) will get a movie certificate. The T-shirts are far from being unwearable, and of course T-shirts are always an excellent marketing tool for entrepreneurs who can afford them.
Even the small things matter in DeSimone's office, though: her appointment cards are not just cards, which Heaven knows we lose all the time; they're colorful stickers, which transfer well to calendars and date books. She no doubt pays a little more for this bit of color, but what she gets is the benefit (though perhaps not totally measurable) of fewer forgotten appointments.
Conclusion: it's an aggressive marketing campaign, and the jury is out as to how well it'll work. I don't know why it's happening now, but I will. Stay tuned.
Labels: consulting
EFGP workshop, part four: how do you make strategic relationships?
Ed DuCoin (pictured) of
Freedom Builders Philadelphia was the final speaker in this workshop. HE has clearly had some success with strategic relationships, which he defines as "relationships with people who can give you residual referrals," or in other words can steer business your way.
The thing we have to understand at the very beginning is "no-one cares about you." If you go to a 250-person meeting seeking to form a strategic relationship with someone, but you have no strategy, no plan, nothing to offer, what is the likelihood that such a relationship will happen? If you thought to yourself "extremely small," you're absolutely right. I found this out myself during several years of giving presentations at the
Trenton Computer Festival. I met some nice people; they couldn't help me and I couldn't help them. And the Festival continues to grow, while nobody working on it remembers that I was ever involved. From the context of DuCoin's pitch, I see that the problem is that at the TCF I was one small fish in a big pond; but DuCoin also suggests that you use your creative energies not to make a single sale, but to systematically create relationships that yield more relationships, and sales as a by-product on the way. I was aiming too small and too near-term.
We are all tempted to tell others what we can do (aiming too near-term), and to tell them as soon as we meet them (aiming too small). But DuCoin says it's not about what we can do: it's about who we are, what we know, what we did for someone else. It's about establishing links and seeing where they lead.
Labels: consulting
EFGP workshop, part three: how do you network?
Linda Lane of Mass Mutual (pictured) has a broken or otherwise nonexistent Web site, but there's nothing broken about her presentation -- she was animated, entertaining, and engaging. And she offers a "tip sheet" about networking, which I will have to find a way to locate as her Web site is broken or otherwise nonexistent. But enough of that.
How do you get people to want to do business with you?
- By helping them in a "non-threatening way."
- By introducing them to others whom they need to know.
- By being taken seriously. (Lane was careful to mention that sometimes men don't take women seriously as networkers. I have known men who don't take anyone seriously.)
- By projecting sincerity. "Nobody likes a used-car salesman."
Then Lane offers up a few choice, but miscellaneous, tidbits:
- If you complain, you'd better offer a solution to the problem.
- Wear your name tag on your right side. (I missed why she said this. Sorry.) HAVE a name tag.
- When you do exchange business cards at "networking meetings," make sure only to call one, or two, or three people afterwards. Projecting sincerity will be difficult when you call them all.
- If several people from the same company are networking, make sure they all agree on a common message before they start communicating a message.
Funny, there aren't many tips here, considering how engaged I was in this presentation. I'll have to go after that tip sheet...
Labels: consulting
EFGP workshop, part two: what's guerrilla marketing?
Sandra Holtzman of
Holtzman Communications (pictured) was up for this pitch. (It occurs to me at this point that what we had wasn't really a panel discussion so much as four consecutive brief presentations. I would like for those presentations to have been longer, but they were preceded by a 15-minute commercial for
Temple University's entrepreneurship program. I don't care HOW good Temple is; that presentation got in the audience's way.)
Marketing is getting your message to a large audience via "traditional methods" (e.g. newspapers, magazines, radio and TV);
guerrilla marketing involves a niche audience, allowing the audience to participate in and respond to your marketing strategies, and (to me the most important thing) getting free PR. To Holtzman, unless we work for Fortune 500 companies we are ALL guerrillas. She offers a comparison between the big and the small:
| BIG | SMALL |
| powerful | not so much |
| clunky | agile |
| slow | fast |
| traditional | anything but |
| research | action |
| $$$$$$ | $ |
| can squish you like a bug | can make you an ally |
And she offers this sage advice:
- Know your audience. Ask them what they think. Listen to what they say. Find out how they want to be "told and sold." Remember they are humans before they are customers; you are there for their convenience and not your own.
- Define a niche. Then sell to it only.
- Go for the Internet first. This because the big companies are still spending bazillions of dollars on market research and traditional methods. It's not too late for you to stake out your space on what really is the best (and cheapest) hope for marketing.
- Get a pro to do the marketing for you. Of course, there are Web sites to help us locate such pros.
And for starters, give away info on your subject. Become a public expert.
Labels: consulting
EFGP workshop, part one: what's a brand?
Speaker Jean Wilcox (pictured) of
CattLeLogos Brand Management Systems was prompted by someone she knew in the audience to define a
brand as "a scar on your butt." Of course something like that draws a laugh, but it's also the default truth. She has this quote from Peter Drucker on her Web site:
Branding, by its very nature, is not optional. If you do not position yourself in people's minds, they will do it for you.
Let them do it for you, and it might very well leave a scar on the ass.
On the other hand, a brand represents a company's "personality" in the eyes of its customers -- it's how well we meet their expectations. It's not what we SAY; it's what the customers PERCEIVE. So how do we control this process, and prevent posterior scarring? Wilcox points out the ABCs:
- A is for AUDIENCE -- and you must aim at the audience you seek to reach. A preacher I once new used to say in his sermons "if you aim at nothing, you're sure to hit it." And I'm sure that he didn't write his own material.
- B is for BELIEVABILITY -- once we aim at the audience, we fire something they can trust, and something we can back up with conviction.
- C is for CONSISTENCY -- like Einstein said, "if you always do what you did, you always get what you got." So once we decide what to fire at the audience, we keep firing it, in the same way, until its look and feel is readily identified.
Three more parts to come...
Labels: consulting
Entrepreneurs' Forum of Greater Philly workshop, prelude
I'm not good at schmoozing. I admit it. The worst part is that for years I wore my social reticence as a kind of badge of honor, because as everyone knows, engineers aren't supposed to be good socially.
Scott Adams' Dilbert is always there to remind us.
But you know what? I've decided I'm willing to learn how. This is a skill I've denied myself for far too long -- and who knows what opportunities have been lost on the way? I figured this out when attending a workshop on "guerrilla marketing" hosted by the Entrepreneurs' Forum of Greater Philadelphia last night. (The notes on the workshop itself are forthcoming.) I saw a crowd of 250 entrepreneurs, at various stages of hunger, and if there's one thing we know it's that entrepreneurs love to network. Since I don't really know how -- REALLY know how -- I decided to watch, and to take pictures (like the one above), as the networking session went on before the workshop itself.
I met Michelle Faustin of
MJF Enterprises, and found that one secret to networking is to know what you are about, and know how to communicate this briefly to anyone who asks. Michelle, although lacking a real Web site, has a talent for tossing out her mission during a conversation. And one thing I also know how to do is to
create a mission statement.
But it's not about selling something to everyone you meet, because not everyone (read: almost no-one) is buying. I think the issue with networking is the social connection, which (as in most social settings) is based largely on shared experience. Still, along came a guy named Randy Zeitman, whose
Stone Rose Design does Web and print design and marketing, and he's handing out his three-fold business cards from a little slotted dispenser. His goal seems to be to hand them all out. But when the workshop started he got plaudits from one of the speakers for imagination, so that might indicate his method works.
And even if you only hand out two or three business cards at such an event, you should at least have them with you. Young entrepreneurs need to think about leaving behind an impression, and old micropatrons like me could stand to do likewise. So I went to
VistaPrint and ordered up some (they do up orders of 250 just for shipping costs) for myself. I don't want to be left without them when I need them, ever again. If I use mine up in a hurry, we can talk about something more substantial. Zeitman's lesson, as I see it, is to recognize that your business card is a talking point. The actual talking can happen now or later.
The workshop got under way, and as an icebreaker, the session leader asked for four volunteers to come up and talk about their businesses -- each in one minute. Funny, I would've expected a crowd going for an offer like that, but not very many did. So I said to myself, "now's the time to see whether my new resolve is worth anything," and I stood up. In one minute, I was able to mention
Holcombe Chassis Works,
Juterphusion,
Clutterbutter, and the
IMET Corporation. I told the audience I was there because "my students need me." (Have to write more on that later.) Not a bad day's work. But more notes and observations follow.
Labels: consulting
Why want ads don't work
It's really simple: not many people have the patience to dig through poorly-written want ads to find something they can apply for. Consider this list of headings for jobs listed under "education" in the local paper this past Sunday:
- Education (six times)
- Immediate Openings
- Teacher (ten times, plus ten more for "teachers")
- Position Available
- name of district (maybe 20 times)
I give this discipline credit, though: computer programmers typically have to find interpreters to read an ad like this one:
...reqs three Software Engrs w/a BS/MS or equiv. in Comp Sci, Engr or Math.
&5 yrs exp in Fin'l, Insurance & mfrg. industry having relational d/base exp. w/Win & Unix environmt/data modeling & architecture design tools (e.g. Erwin, TOAD, etc). Must have good understanding & knwldge of d/base processes, utilities & func'ns assoc'd w/Oracle 9i & 10g. Extensive knowl. of Java, SQL, Unix-Shell, XML, SQL*Loader & exp. in devlpng complex PL/SQL req. Permanent position M-F 40 hrs/wk. Competitive salary. Travel or reloca. req'd.
Many people have complained about ads requiring more experience than even the best programmer can get in five years. But this ad should make readers' heads ache.
Labels: consulting
Brain's "How to Make a Million Dollars": cool summer reading
Marshall Brain's
"How to Make a Million Dollars" is worth the time you invest for reading. It strangely makes total sense. It almost even seems possible. :-) :-) :-)
Labels: consulting
17 MORE Deadly Small Business Mistakes!
Harry Joiner has written a popular blog post entitled
"17 Deadly Small Business Mistakes". I think it's a nice piece of work. But here's something funny: the kids at nearby
Hopewell High, in their business classes, are being given handouts written by one David C. Carter, which includes
another list of frequent causes of business failure. You'll see these two lists are not precisely the same, too, though there's some overlap.
- Moving forward without testing ideas first
- Pricing too low
- Underestimating time to market
- Underestimating competition
- Starting with insufficient funding
- Carelessness with generous funding
- Starting without "book smarts" or "street smarts"
- Borrowing without a repayment plan and budget
- Working with too many/too many large customers
- Working without a contingency plan
- Buying too much on credit
- Giving customers excessive credit
- Growing too fast
- Lacking complete and accurate records
- Spending on extravagances
- Hiring too many relatives and friends
- Working on an irregular/unprofessional schedule
(I've rewritten Carter's list, and shortened most of its entries, for simplicity's sake.) What are the chances that two sources could come up with lists for the same purpose, with different entries, yet exactly 17 entries in each? Is that a sign that there really are exactly 17 things to watch out for?
Labels: consulting
Forbes on sustainable development
OK, this was an advertisement, not an article: but the latest issue of
Forbes contains a... something... about sustainable, or socially-conscious, development. Even though this "article" is the result of a collaboration of several large companies, it clearly features the
World Business Council on Sustainable Development. The nature of this advertisement of course makes me suspicious, but I'm suspicious of everyone's motives, including my own.
There's still a neat list there called "Ten Rules by Which to Operate."
- Business is good for sustainable development, and [vice-versa].
- Business cannot succeed in societies that fail.
- Poverty is a key enemy to stable societies.
- Access to markets for all supports sustainable development.
- Good governance is needed to make business a part of the solution.
- Business has to earn its "license" to operate, innovate and grow.
- Innovation and technology development are crucial to sustainable development.
- Eco-efficiency -- doing more with less -- is at the core of the business case for sustainable development.
- Keeping ecosystems in balance must be a prerequisite for business.
- Cooperation beats confrontation.
You can see that this list is morally and ethically encouraging. The big question is: who's listening?
Labels: consulting
How to tell your customers what they need!
It's true. Sometimes we have to help our customers understand what it is they want. Nobody should be better at this than young entrepreneurs: naturally enthusiastic and having the fervor of a revival of religion when it comes to their businesses. But just in case the idea is new to you, here are some hints to guide you as you guide them.
- They don't want to buy things. They want to buy the services performed by things. Of course there are exceptions, such as (non-reference) books.
- They have other things that they value besides money.
- They want the need to purchase this particular product or service to go away.
- They don't need to become experts in this area.
- They have rules they must follow in any purchase.
If you remember their wants and needs, you will be better prepared to help them understand what you are offering. Now, about what to teach them:
- Show you understand the problem they have that made them seek you out in the first place.
- Give them the names of impartial third parties who've had similar problems. Even if these parties didn't buy from you. You may know what motivates potential customers to buy from someone else, or not to buy, but it's important that your new potential customers know this too.
- Show how solving the problem improves the bottom line, especially in the areas they value most -- whether those areas include cost or not.
In short, are they better off taking SOME action than taking NONE? If they must act, are they better off with YOU or someone else? There is a danger that they could choose someone else. But they must have that choice, and it's better that they have it early than late. If they have the choice early, they will begin to trust you as a person who is seeking their best interests rather than a sale. That is how you make repeat customers.
You don't necessarily have to tell them how your competitors are better than you, but if there is any area in which you are not better than the competition, you must not lie about it. They will find out if you do.
Once they decide to buy from you, you still get to teach them:
- Their responsibility after the purchase, and yours.
- What to do if (when) something goes wrong.
- How to find the fastest answers to their questions.
Here they should feel free to contact you. You have invested time and energy in establishing the relationship; even if you have "technical support" or "customer service" functions, let them know that you will be there for them. Again, that's how you win repeat customers. It's not about the one sale. It's about a lifetime worth.
Labels: consulting
Rhetoric applied to sales
Here is an article even more dated than the last one I wrote about. It's by a fellow named Garry Cosnett, and it's called "The Art of Persuasion: Ancient Wisdom for Modern Sales Professionals." Funny, this article was written in 1996 and was originally hosted by
salesdoctors.com, but they don't have it there any more. You know how Web sites can be -- the old stuff will get pruned away, even if it's classic. So this article is getting harder to find. This school system in Iowa hosting it now won't do so forever.
Anyway, the point is that this article IS classic. Cosnett shows us how the act of selling is tied to the practice of rhetoric, and in particular how each vertex of the rhetorical triangle (pictured) contributes to our relationships with customers, and to ultimately making the sale. The argument Cosnett makes is beautiful in its simplicity. His summary goes like this:
To [apply rhetoric to sales], a sales presentation should be:- clear, simple, and direct
- systematic and easy to follow
- expressed in the prospect's own terms
- tailored to the prospect's needs
- supported by solid, memorable examples
- easy to visualize (illustrated, where possible)
- as brief as possible
So sales is all about having enough discipline to follow rules nearly as old as Western civilization.
Labels: consulting
Really good advice about when to incorporate
Dan Marques writes in his blog about the relative virtues of when a start-up should incorporate, and with whose help.
But for the sake of the start-ups I care most about, he has this to say:
I have rarely seen (if ever) people telling prospective entrepreneurs the benefits and strategies of not incorporating (at least in the short run). [...] Basically, any major contract or cash flow that is foreshadowing the real start of your new venture is when you should incorporate.
There's the rub: even if you've started up, you haven't started up, until the money starts coming in. And you shouldn't spend a dime on incorporation until you reach that point.
Labels: consulting
Mission Statements made easy?
Robert Lucky wrote the following in a recent issue of
IEEE Spectrum:
...there was a management meeting of the company's executives... Our chairman asked how many of us knew the corporate mission statement. I avoided his eyes, because I hadn't a clue. Neither, apparently, did anyone else. The angry chairman pointed out that the mission statement was prominently displayed in the lobby of our building, and we all passed by it every day.
This manager might have been able to take heart. There are, after all, two basic problems with
mission statements:
- If the staff is already focused on what it's supposed to be doing, it doesn't need the mission statement;
- If the staff is not focused on what it's supposed to be doing, then there is a problem more fundamental than the need for a mission statement.
...and this guy may already have his people focused. :-)
What you want out of a mission statement is for everyone to work differently with it than they would without it. If you can't get that out of yours, then yours is crap. Write it over again. I mean it. Do it NOW. You need a mission statement that is
- concrete, measurable, achievable, relevant, and memorable
- consistent in its goals (as opposed to having both "good customer service" and "wrapping up service calls in less than three minutes")
- driving day-to-day workplace values
With practice, you can come up with a passable mission statement on the fly -- and this is something entrepreneurs might have to do because of the likelihood of
chance meetings. I am gonna write one right now, pulled out of the blue sky:
I am an educator whose life's work and passion is to grow a generation of competent entrepreneurs.
Not too shabby.
Labels: consulting
